Is German Cannabis Reform Under Threat
The coalition breakdown has thrown cannabis policy into doubt.
Just hours after the results of the US elections were announced, which sent North American cannabis stocks into free fall, Germany’s governing coalition dramatically collapsed. This has seemingly left the destiny of Europe’s biggest and most hopeful cannabis market in an insecure position.
On November 6, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz dismissed Finance Minister Christian Lindler (of the Free Democratic Party), in the culmination of a significant escalation of political strains that have been bubbling over for months. This outcome not only sets up the real possibility of a vote of no confidence in the Bundestag in January 2025 and a snap election to follow at the end of March but also risks undermining cannabis reforms that the coalition has worked for the past few years to enforce.
With polls indicating an increasingly expected swing to the right if an election is held next year, the potential future of Pillar 2 is now more uncertain than ever, while there are already efforts being made to revoke Pillar 1.
How has Germany got to this point?
At a press conference on Wednesday 6th November, Scholz stated that Lindner, the FDP leader, had continually betrayed his trust by prioritising his party's interests over national unity. The Chancellor called Lindner's actions "selfish", stating that Lindner's rejection of economic reform proposals, including measures for the German energy sector and aid packages for floundering industries, left him with no choice. Scholz has been quoted as saying that the sacking of Lindner was to"prevent harm to the German people" and as a result encouraged the FDP to remove themselves from the coalition.
Negotiations between the coalition leaders had reached a breaking point during the crisis summit. Scholz reportedly offered Lindner ample concessions to try and prevent the coalition from collapsing, including reforms to help stabilise the economy, as well as a new aid package for Ukraine. However, Lindner refused the offer and instead suggested that the coalition should pursue new elections. Scholz then offered Lindner an ultimatum: either support the proposals or face dismissal. Lindner’s continued resistance ultimately led Scholz to move ahead with his discharge, adding that Lindner’smotivation for early elections was a final breach of trust. The coalition break-up comes amid extremely concerning poll numbers for the SPD, Greens and FDP, who risk considerable losses in the event of an early election.
The SPD’s poll numbers are currently sitting at around 15-16%, the Greens at 10% and the FDP at a perilous 3-4%, all of which raise concerns about the FDP’s return to the Bundestag. In contrast, the Union, led by Friedrich Merz’s CDU, is showing at over 30% in recent polls, placing it in a promising position if early elections are held.
Scholz has however since the crisis, vowed to push pending legislation through before Christmas, including tax-cutting and pension-stabilisation measures. However, the recent breakdown of the coalition has now inevitably thrown the future of cannabis policy in Germany into doubt.
With the Christmas break approaching and potential elections looming in early 2025, the possibility of confirming regulatory transparency for cannabis pilot projects seems to be declining. There are now weighty questions about whether the SPD and Greens can guarantee the required funding for staff to oversee the projects or conclude the regulatory framework for CanG before the next election.
What could this mean for cannabis policy in Germany?
The CDU has long conveyed an emphatic interest in reversing cannabis reforms. While full re-criminalisation is doubtful, the Union could enforce more restrictive measures if it is successful in the next election. Recently, SPD drug policy spokesman Dirk Heidenblut admitted that a CDU-led government may attempt to constrict CanG policies. However, some are more optimistic, Niklas Kouparanis for example, the CEO of German medical cannabis company Bloomwell, thinks that the industry will persist in moving forward regardless of the outcome of an election.
“Regardless of who becomes the next German chancellor, a lot of progress has been made and we are not going to back off.”
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Liz Filmer
